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I’ve got a bet with a friend of mine we’ll be going into Iran before years end, and we came close during the Lebanon slaughter although the Israeli’s seemed to back down at the last minute. I still think it’s maybe an even money proposition at the moment, although I’d guess it’s probably likely they’ll now postpone an attack until the US economic balloon goes up. The neocons seem to have shot their load too early.

The recent US elections were a victory for the Democrats but they’re still a war party, and what seems to me to have happened is the Republican old guard have pulled the leash in on their war dogs in the US executive. Rumsfeld going surprised me, and it looks like Poppy Bush and co are doing a number on Cheney’s shadow government. But I really don’t think the fact the old guard ‘realists’ have reigned the neocons in is an indication that the US is going all flower power again, and I can’t see them retreating from the Gulf in any really significant way, especially as we’ve only just started on our way through the peak oil plateau.

What’s the bet that we’ll be all the way with LBJ in the Persian Gulf for the next 20 years?

Modernity suz ass

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